When Judy and I first became involved in Gerontology, one of
the major concerns was that people would outlive their money and end up old and
poor. This was not just a worry among
economists. Having lived through the
Great Depression, older people were haunted by the specter that the economy
might crash again, leaving them without basic resources to get along. There were places in the US during the
Depression where as many as one half of people over 65 lived in poverty, with
no pensions or possibilities of work. Their
plight, which was described in a report by economist Paul Douglas, proved
influential in passing Social Security.
Since Social Security was originally passed, the financial
situation of older people has been shorted up by indexing benefits to the cost
of living, reforming private pension, and of course by passage of Medicare,
which takes away much of the burden of health care costs. But the safety net that protects older people
from poverty is being threatened.
The threat comes from the new tax bill. Even with the most optimistic estimates of
the potential stimulus to the economy, the tax bill will lead to a gigantic
deficit. Depending on the final wording
of the tax bill, that deficit may trigger an existing law that will make
automatic cuts in Medicare and Social Security. And conservative politicians like Marco
Rubio and Paul Ryan are already crowing about the prospects of doing away with
both programs. This has been a long-term
goal of many conservatives, but they did not talk about it openly, because
Medicare and Social Security are popular among voters. It’s clear they no longer fear the voters.
Adding to the threat to Medicare and Social Security, the
Trump administration is unraveling the protections that were put into place in
our financial system to prevent another meltdown. Even something as basic as being able to get
redress from a financial manager who knowingly sells you a bad investment has
been pushed aside.
A new book, Nomadland,
by Jessica Bruder, may be a harbinger of the future of old age in
America. She describes the lives of a
group of 50 older people who were hit particularly hard by the Great Recession
of 2008, losing their homes and other investments. They now roam across the country, travelling
where there are jobs, and then moving on when the job ends. They often do hard labor that would place
stress on a younger person. Maybe the
future will not be Mad Max riding through the country in a super-charged car,
but us old folks driving down the road like the Oakies in the 1930s looking for
a job.
I don’t think I am overreacting. The threat is real.
